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Showing 21 - 30 of 97 results for %22July FOMC%22

Chief economist update: Fed plans for Trump contingency

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 20 JUN 2019
... directly, the CME FedWatch Tool - based on 30-day Fed Fund futures pricing data - shows the probability of 25 bps rate cut in July has increased to 71.9% after the Fed's decision (from 68.5% a day earlier and 23.2% one month before). The probability ...

Chief economist update: Cash is King

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 19 JUN 2019
... month's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting but consensus expect the US Federal Reserve to serve Christmas in July with a 25 basis point reduction in the fed funds rate from 2.25%-2.5% to 2%-2.25%. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability ...

Chief economist update: Two indicators giving the Fed a headache

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 9 APR 2019
... target in November and continued to slow to 1.4% by February this year. The more stable core PCE price index peaked at 2.0% in July last year and has decelerated to 1.8% in February. And maximum employment? Let's hear from the horse's mouth ...

Chief economist update: Fed fail

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 20 DEC 2018
... moved in the opposite direction - the core PCE price inflation has eased to an annual rate of 1.8% in October from 2% in July; the core CPI inflation rate has slowed to 2.2% after peaking at 2.3% in July this year. And inflation expectations? They've ...

Chief economist update: Trump's beggar thy neighbour policy

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 10 SEP 2018
... in May this year. Although the strength of employment in August is somewhat offset by the downward revisions in June and July (a total 50K reduction for the prior two months) and the unemployment rate disappointed expectations for a lower 3.8% print ...

Two holds and a raise

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 31 OCT 2017
... acknowledgment that the rate hike would merely reverse the emergency rate reduction the British central bank implemented back in July last year to head off any nasty repercussions from Brexit. What would be more interesting is the BOE's forward guidance ...

Inflated attention on September US CPI inflation

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 16 OCT 2017
... information and improved measurement techniques." 3. The annual rate of PCE inflation has slowed to 1.3% in August from 1.4% in July and 1.5% in June while core PCE inflation remained unchanged at 1.4% over the same periods. The Fed considers low inflation ...

Fed does the thinkable

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 21 SEP 2017
... 2.1%) in 2018. Latest data shows that, inflation - as measured by the core PCE price index - was only 1.4% in the year to July. If inflation remains at this low rate, the Taylor model suggests a fed funds rate of 2.5%, still lower than current projections ...

On the road to normal

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 19 SEP 2017
... won't they?). The likelihood of these happening is two for two because US economic data and surveys since the Fed last met in July (and when they lifted the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 1%-1.25% in June) have been, to paraphrase the Fed, evolving ...

Low-flation becoming less transitory?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 14 AUG 2017
In its 26 July FOMC statement, the Fed noted: "Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2% in the near term but to stabilise around the Committee's 2% objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook ...