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Showing 11 - 19 of 19 results for "NAIRU"

Good jobs, sluggish pay

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 21 JUL 2017
... inflation) has turned slightly negative in the March quarter of this year. The correlation between the unemployment rate and the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) - as estimated by the OECD - indicates that wages should have been ...

Is the Fed the victim of its own success?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 17 JUL 2017
... prescription drugs..." Inflation isn't lifting despite the US unemployment rate (4.4% in June) falling below estimates of NAIRU (4.9% OECD; 4.5% Oxford Economics) over the past months. It could be because of wages' lagged response. It could also be because ...

Economics 101 is dead

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 10 JUL 2017
... recorded in May - a function of the increase in the participation rate from 62.7% to 62.8% in June - it's still below the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) as measured by the OECD (4.9%) and Oxford Economics (4.5%). The increase ...

The Fed's inflation and asset price conundrum

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 28 JUN 2017
... does the labour market need to be to get inflation lifting? At 4.3% in May, America's jobless rate has broken below the NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) as measured by both Oxford Economics (4.5%) the OECD (4.9%). But instead of ...

Slack Eurozone labour

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 12 JAN 2017
... lower since peaking at 12.1% in June 2013, it remains below the OECD's non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) estimate of 8.8% this year. This indicates excess capacity in the euro area's labour market that, in turn, suggests insufficient ...

Make it December (for now)

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 3 AUG 2015
... since 2010. Just as RBA Gov Glenn wondered whether Australia's trend growth is now lower than 3% -- 3.5%, maybe America's NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) has also gone down from the estimated 5.0%. I'm pretty sure the Fed will ...

Bad news sells

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 16 AUG 2012
... unemployment stats? Australia's unemployment rate printed at 5.2% in July and it had been at or below 5.5% (my guess of the NAIRU - non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) since January 2010. Unless the unemployment rate jumps above 5.5%, expect ...

The Cup, the RBA and the Fed

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 1 NOV 2010
... wages - will rise. With domestic business activity continuing to hum nicely, it would not take long to breach the economy's NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) thought to be around 4.75-5.00 per cent. Fortunately, we're not there ...

Enviable problem

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 9 APR 2010
... intellectual doesn't it?) to say that everyone who wants a job has a job. After all, our FSIU calculates that Australia's NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) lies between 5 per cent and 5.5 per cent. Soon we'll run out of workers ...
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