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Showing 41 - 50 of 171 results for "US recession"

Chief economist update: The path of monetary policy according to Lowe

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 5 JUN 2019
... ongoing/escalating trade war and its negative impact on already slowing global growth, and the rising likelihood of a US recession (as indicated by the inverted yield curve) make this a real possibility. Governor Philip Lowe's statement after the ...

Chief economist update: The rate cut Australia has to have

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 4 JUN 2019
... of the Asian currency crisis and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management and Russian default in 1997/98; the US recession and the terrorists' attacks on the US in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2008. The decline in US interest rate ...

Chief economist update: US recession in the offing

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 3 JUN 2019
... his admonitions to the Fed to cut interest rates were correct all along, their hefty prices to pay for the looming US recession. The yield differential between the yield on US 10-year Treasuries and 3-month US bills - the best predictor of US recessions ...

Chief economist update: Glass half-full or US recession on the way?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 29 MAY 2019
... again prompted the US yield curve to invert. We all know, and backed-up by history, what this means... a looming US recession. The recession fears we had back in March this year is back. The yield curve turned positive after the Fed stressed that the ...

Chief economist update: The power of one

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 28 MAY 2019
... just as it did during the Asian currency crisis and LTCM (long term capital management) collapse in 1997/98, the US recession in 2001 and the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Not only that, the Australian Prudential Regulations Authority's (APRA) ...

Chief economist update: Like Britney Spears, Financial Standard's done it again

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 23 MAY 2019
... Asian currency crisis and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) and Russian default in 1997/98; the US recession and the terrorists attacks on the US in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2008. The resurgence in the domestic equity ...

Chief economist update: A tariff for a tariff

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 14 MAY 2019
... curve (yield on 10-year Treasuries less 3-month T-bills) positive after it inverted in late March - a precursor of a US recession. The decline in 10-year US bond yields in recent days has begun to re-flatten the yield curve. So much so that financial ...

Chief economist update: The Fed pause that refreshes

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 24 APR 2019
... Yes Virginia, you can be forgiven for scratching your head, for it was just a month ago that fears of an upcoming US recession was the spook du jour portended by the inversion of the US yield curve. Since then, the yield curve has become positive, the ...

Chief economist update: The Fed should act now

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 29 MAR 2019
... different", such as the US yield curve. Or more specifically, the inversion of the US yield curve that predicted every US recession since 1955 (the earliest record I could find). The last two recessions were fresher in my memory when the 10Y-3M yield ...

Chief economist update: A question of when?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 28 MAR 2019
... I penned only three days before Woe to the world when the US yield curve first inverted. To wit: "But fears of a US recession that would take the world with it may be a bit premature. The inversion needs to be sustained for longer (not just a day)." ...