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Chief economist update: Rate cuts coming, but not on race day

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 21 OCT 2019
Unless a positive shock emerges over the next few months, expect the RBA to continue lowering interest rates and the Morrison government to increase fiscal spending (but only after it's achieved having the Budget surplus immortalised on paper). ...

RBA downplays likelihood of further rate cuts

ELIZA BAVIN  |  FRIDAY, 18 OCT 2019
Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has told a forum at the International Monetary Fund that Australia's economy is set to "return to trend growth" next year. Lowe said the expected return to trend growth over the next year will help get the unemployment ...

Chief economist update: Synchronised forecasts for a synchronised slowdown

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 9 OCT 2019
"Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water..." - Jaws The history of the US-China trade negotiations has followed a pattern ever since it began in 2018 - rhetoric from both sides building hopes for a deal only to be followed by escalating ...

Chief economist update: Are capital markets the next Sino-US battleground?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 30 SEP 2019
US president Donald Trump might be thinking that it's a small price to pay - sending the US equity market down - in return for his broader objective of getting China to wave the white flag in this seemingly never-ending trade battle. US benchmark ...

Chief economist update: Foolish takeaway on US-China talks

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 6 SEP 2019
"There's an old saying in Tennessee - I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee - that says, fool me once, shame on -- shame on you. Fool me -- you can't get fooled again." - former US President George W. Bush, Nashville, Tenn., 17 September ...

Chief economist update: Wheels of US recession in motion

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 22 AUG 2019
"Your breath first kindled the dead coal of wars And brought in matter that should feed this fire; And now 'tis far too huge to be blown out With that same weak wind which enkindled it." - The Life and Death of King John Bill Shakespeare might just ...

Chief economist update: RBA heading to zero

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 7 AUG 2019
Trump's latest tat (branding Beijing a currency manipulator) for China's tit (allowing the yuan to fall below the psychological threshold of CNY7.0/US$1) highlights just how determined the US president is to win the trade war. Yes Virginia ...

Impact investing under threat

ELIZABETH MCARTHUR  |  TUESDAY, 16 JUL 2019
... Advocates of impact investing are in fear for the future of the movement, issuing warnings about the dangers of impact-washing. A recent analysis of green themed funds around the globe found 85% make unsubstantiated and misleading impact-related claims ...

Chief economist update: Australia needs a cheaper A$

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 9 JUL 2019
If it were posted on Facebook, Wall Street would have "unliked" the strong US non-farm payrolls report for June - up a bigger-than-expected 224,000 from 72,000 in May. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% from 3.6% in May, remains near ...

Chief economist update: Iron ore on the up and up

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 1 JUL 2019
The way it's going, the rally in iron ore prices will keep on going and going. Iron ore prices ended the first half of 2019 at US$109.18/metric tonne, representing a 57.8% rally from the US$69.20 it fetched six months earlier. The world's largest ...