Search ResultsShowing 1 - 10 of 26 results for "CME FedWatch Tool"
Chief economist update: It's a holiday for the Fed
BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 31 JAN 2020
... markets trusted the Fed's forward guidance back then so much so that, after the January 2019 meeting, the CME FedWatch Tool put the probability of the Fed remaining on hold until the end of 2019 at 80.2%. It made sense that time, expectations of ...
Chief economist update: Has the Fed conquered the yield curve?
BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 12 DEC 2019
... other four expecting a rate HIKE next year. Financial markets appear to agree and this is consistent with the CME FedWatch Tool that shows majority of market participants expect no change in US interest rates in 2020. The US has come a long way baby ...
Chief economist update: Bad news is good news is back
BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 4 OCT 2019
... up 0.5%. Bad, bad news is good news! This is because it heightened speculations of more Fed rate cuts. The CME FedWatch Tool put the probability that the Fed funds rate would fall from the current 1.75%-2% to 1.5%-1.75% at the October FOMC meeting at ...
Chief economist update: Fed future move depends on dollar direction
BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 16 SEP 2019
... Fed funds rate - currently at 2%-2.25%. Every man and his dog is already positioned for this eventuality. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of the US central bank taking interest rates down by another 25 basis points to 1.75%-2% on September ...
Chief economist update: Fed cut and Trump's war
BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 5 AUG 2019
... investment. The Trump administration's trade policy, not the cost of capital, is holding businesses back..." The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a Fed rate cut (to 1.75%-2.0%) at its September meeting at 98.5%.
Chief economist update: BOE flips tightening bias to easing
BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 8 JUL 2019
... 72,000 added in the previous month - failed to remove or even reduce the odds for a Fed rate cut this month. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability that the US central bank will cut interest rates by 25 bps to 2%-2.25% at the conclusion of its July ...
Chief economist update: Fed plans for Trump contingency
BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 20 JUN 2019
... their expectations are - benchmark US equity indices closed higher and the US dollar dipped. More directly, the CME FedWatch Tool - based on 30-day Fed Fund futures pricing data - shows the probability of 25 bps rate cut in July has increased to 71.9% ...
Chief economist update: Cash is King
BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 19 JUN 2019
... serve Christmas in July with a 25 basis point reduction in the fed funds rate from 2.25%-2.5% to 2%-2.25%. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at current levels after its June meeting at 77.5%. This intuitively ...
Chief economist update: US recession in the offing
BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 3 JUN 2019
... more negative and by longer compared with its inversion in March this year. So much so that, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of Fed rate reductions by December this year have increased while the odds of the Fed maintaining the current ...
Chief economist update: Glass half-full or US recession on the way?
BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 29 MAY 2019
... compensation for the prospect of inflation eroding the value of their Treasury holdings. So much so that the CME FedWatch Tool now puts the odds that the Fed will remain on hold down to 45.5% (from 51.6% a month ago) at its September FOMC meeting while ...
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