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Showing 11 - 20 of 27 results for "CME FedWatch Tool"

Chief economist update: Glass half-full or US recession on the way?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 29 MAY 2019
... compensation for the prospect of inflation eroding the value of their Treasury holdings. So much so that the CME FedWatch Tool now puts the odds that the Fed will remain on hold down to 45.5% (from 51.6% a month ago) at its September FOMC meeting while ...

Chief economist update: A tariff for a tariff

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 14 MAY 2019
... enough given recent developments in the Sino-US trade stoush and the financial markets' reaction to it. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability that the fed funds rate would remain at 2.25%-2.50% at the Fed's December 2019 FOMC meeting has ...

Chief economist update: Policy of patience

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 2 MAY 2019
... convince. This hasn't stopped silent whispers the Fed would cut interest rates before 2019 is over. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability the Fed funds rate would remain at 2.25%-2.5% by December FOMC meeting at 47.8% and a 38.4% chance it would ...

Chief economist update: The Fed pause that refreshes

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 24 APR 2019
... the excuse it needs to justify a resumption of its normalisation of monetary policy. Just as I expected, the CME FedWatch Tool now shows that the probability of a Fed rate hike in June this year to 2.5%-2.75% has increased from nil a month ago to 0.4%. ...

Chief economist update: A question of when?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 28 MAR 2019
... differential between the tenners and the 3-month bill rate. We're still not there but we're getting close. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased - at its June meeting to 27.6% currently from 8.2% a month earlier ...

Chief economist update: Fed on ice

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 21 MAR 2019
... market psychology that "something must be wrong" to prompt the Fed to change its stance. More than this, the CME FedWatch Tool now (that is, after the Fed's March 2019 decision) shows the probability of the fed funds rate being cut at their December ...

Chief economist update: Where sentiment goes, there too is spending

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 18 FEB 2019
... a more fundamental shift in consumer expectations due to the Fed's pause in raising interest rates." The CME FedWatch Tool supports these expectations. According to the CME Group's website, the probability of the fed funds target rate remaining ...

Chief economist update: The Fed pause that refreshes

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 31 JAN 2019
... itself, a downshift from earlier projections for three rate rises. Now, all bets are off (so to speak). The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of the Fed remaining on hold until the end of this year - fed funds rate at 2.25%-2.5% - at 80.2% (up from ...

Fed's pause becomes the ECB's problem

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 11 JAN 2019
... over with regards to the conduct of its monetary policy over the course of 2019. How patient and flexible? The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of the fed funds rate remaining at the current 2.25%-2.50% level by 11 December 2019 meeting at 70.2% ...

Chief economist update: The clown in the White House

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 18 DEC 2018
... hike. Take the Victory!" Nah, the Fed's not even considering it, it's a done deal! Based on the latest CME FedWatch Tool, it's in the bag with the probability of the fed funds rate (currently at 2%-2.25%) rising by 25 bps to 2.25-2.5% at ...