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Showing 21 - 30 of 103 results for "PCE"

Chief economist update: Fed plans for Trump contingency

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 20 JUN 2019
... output, or other economic conditions." Based on the Taylor Rule and using the Fed's 2019 forecasts for growth (2.1%), PCE price inflation (1.5%) and the neutral cash rate (2.5% - according to FOMC vice chairman John Williams), my calculations show ...

Chief economist update: The greatest challenge of our time

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 30 MAY 2019
... While US core US CPI inflation is at target (2.1% in the year to April), it's preferred inflation gauge - the headline PCE price index is way off-target (1.5% in March) and had been below 2% since November 2018. It's a royal rightful challenge ...

Chief economist update: Glass half-full or US recession on the way?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 29 MAY 2019
... All good on the growth stakes. What's not good is inflation. The Fed's favoured measure of inflation - the headline PCE price index - has eased to just 1.5% in the year to April, down from 1.8% in 2017 and 2018. This is perhaps, what the overnight ...

Chief economist update: Policy of patience

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 2 MAY 2019
... two-lows: low unemployment rate (3.8% in March which is a point above a 49-year low) and low inflation - headline and core PCE price index below target at 1.5% and 1.6% in the year to March, respectively. In his Q&A, chair Powell stressed the decision ...

Chief economist update: A good problem to have?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 30 APR 2019
... the March 2019 quarter, not to mention the unemployment rate that remains at near-49 year lows. There was also the headline PCE price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - that increased by 1.5% in the year to March (an improvement from ...

Chief economist update: Two indicators giving the Fed a headache

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 9 APR 2019
... January 2012." Which inflation measure? The Fed's target is based on the annual change in the overall, or "headline," PCE price index. As Bullard wrote in a 2012 Regional Economist article: "The FOMC will target the headline inflation rate as opposed ...

Chief economist update: The Fed should act now

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 29 MAR 2019
... end of 2006 (even stronger the previous year), employment growth was strong and strengthening and so was inflation - core PCE price inflation reached a high of 2.6% in August 2006 - that seemingly gave credence to then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's ...

Chief economist update: Fed on ice

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 21 MAR 2019
... its 2019 growth forecast to 2.1% (from 2.3% predicted in December 2018) and 1.9% (from 2.0%) in 2020. It also lowered the PCE price inflation outlook to 1.8% (from 1.9%) this year and to 2% (from 2.1%) in 2020. The Fed revised higher its median forecasts ...

Chief economist update: US economic growth is slowing and accelerating

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 1 MAR 2019
... better than expected annualised growth rate and accelerating year-on-year GDP growth measure, inflation remains tame. The PCE price index remains below the Fed's 2% target - annualised, the headline PCE price index slowed to 1.5% from 1.6% and the ...

Chief economist update: The Fed has hit neutral

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 27 FEB 2019
... unemployment rate stood at 4% in January, a very low level by historical standards, and job openings remain abundant. "Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy prices and tends to be a better indicator of future inflation, is estimated at 1.9%" ...