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Showing 1 - 10 of 10 results for "Fed funds futures"

Fed's pause becomes the ECB's problem

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 11 JAN 2019
... 18-19 December 2018 FOMC meeting). What's more, the likelihood of a rate cut at its 19 January meeting (based on fed funds futures trading) has increased to 17.7% (from 14.4% a month ago) while the chances of a rate hike to 2.50%-2.75% declined to 16.4% ...

Fed steady with a slight chance of a rate cut

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 10 JAN 2019
... muted inflation pressures, the Committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming." How patient? Fed funds futures trading shows that US interest rates would remain unchanged through to the end of 2019 - with a small chance that the Fed ...

Three days to lift off

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 14 DEC 2015
... lift-off. You know the drill: jobs equal confidence equals spending equals growth. But this late in the day, the fed funds futures market continues to price in an 80% chance of a hike... why not 100%? After having talked the talk and prepared the citizens ...

US Fed cleared for lift-off

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 7 DEC 2015
... the Fed - that a rate rise is coming in December - and the latest jobs report clearing the way for such, the fed funds futures market is only pricing in an 80% probability. That 20% likelihood of non-lift can be traced back to the still below the 2.0% ...

No December lift off? Small chance

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 19 NOV 2015
... with the latest speaks from Fed officials and voila! The certainty of a lift-off next month has risen to 72% (fed funds futures pricing) from 70% at the end of last week from 7% last month. Factset provides a good summary of the recent Fed yaks: "Lockhart ...

December lift-off, yeah, sure

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 29 OCT 2015
... 5bps rise in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield to 2.09% last night. It's for all to see in the spike in the fed funds futures indicating odds for a December lift-off now at 46% from 37% before the Fed released its statement. This because, according ...

Inflation expectations says no

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 13 OCT 2015
... economists accurately predicting 12 of the last three recessions? This is in contrast with indications from fed funds futures trading - where investors put their money where their crystal balls are - that showed the odds of a lift-off in October at 7% ...

Watching out for the Hole

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 31 JUL 2015
... on 'Seeking Alpha' that: "The implied probability of a September rate increase from the Fed, based on 30-day Fed funds futures prices, dropped to 0% following Wednesday's dovish policy statement from the FOMC. In recent weeks, the implied probability ...

It's not the when but the what happens after

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 24 JUL 2015
... economists show 82% expect a September lift-off; Bloomberg's survey shows only 50%; and, according to trading in the fed funds futures market only around 19% says it's gonna be in September. Yes, there are other numbers for October, November and December ...

The fat lady in concert on Sunday

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 3 JUL 2015
... were stronger, some weaker, than expectations. What to make of these in terms of Fed lift-off? Bloomberg says, "Fed funds futures show there's a 29 per cent chance the central bank will increase its benchmark rate from near zero in September, down from ...
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