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| | | ... priced for recession," he said. "There's plenty of room for even more adverse scenarios to play out. It does take time for oil shortages to make their way through the system." Colosimo noted the disruption in oil supply is more than just price increases. ... |
| | | | ... probability at the moment, Macquarie is also preparing its credit loss provisioning for a more dramatic scenario in which oil reaches $200 a barrel. US President Donald Trump recently paused attacks on Iranian energy plants for 10 days and said talks ... |
| | | | ... rate hike may not yet be a given. "This marginal easing sets a slightly lower baseline ahead of the impending impact of the oil shock driven by the Middle East conflict, suggesting the next RBA hike may not be until August," Robertson said. "The front ... |
| | | | ... destruction. Attacks on energy infrastructure and/or further signs the US is considering 'boots on the ground' could see oil prices soar, which would hurt both equity and bond markets," Bassanese said. "As we saw in 2022, if a global energy shock ... |
| | | | ... in the Middle East could trigger a larger shock that destabilises the global economy, particularly if supply disruptions to oil and other commodity markets are prolonged," the RBA warned, foreseeing the potential for a "severe international shock." Despite ... |
| | | | ... without the conflict [in the Middle East]," Chalmers said. "Around half of the impact to GDP is due to the impact of higher oil. The other half is due to broader consequences. "Treasury, with other agencies, is continuing to undertake detailed modelling ... |
| | | | ... consumer inflation expectations." Bassanese said he believes the conflict in the Middle East will have ended by May, meaning oil prices will be materially lower. "That said, my view is that this would still not be enough to stop the RBA hiking again ... |
| | | | ... the Budget," he said. "We've run a couple of scenarios which make it clear on some realistic assumptions about global oil prices and how that would potentially flow through to inflation and for how long. If we were putting pencils down on those forecasts ... |
| | | | ... will make that more challenging rather than less challenging," Chalmers said. "We've seen already the way that the global oil price has spiked. We've been speaking about what that has meant for petrol prices here in Australia, and there will be flow-on ... |
| | | | ... the timing for the conflict. "With little warning, the world has been plunged into a war between the US/Israel and Iran. As oil prices have spiked - modestly at first - but more aggressively as supply disruption fears have increased, equity markets have ... |
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