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Showing 11 - 20 of 111 results for "Federal Reserve Bank"

Chief economist update: Zero beyond 2023

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 17 SEP 2020
... exact) till the year 2023, supported by the latest "economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, that show PCE price inflation reaching the inflation target of 2% three years from now. The Fed's latest ...

Chief economist update: Honey, COVID-19 got me sacked

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 27 MAR 2020
... from Factset: In as much as initial jobless claims provide a leading indicator of the unemployment rate, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard's prediction that the US unemployment rate could hit 30% in the second quarter appears ...

Chief economist update: US recession on the cards

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 3 OCT 2019
... by another 25 basis points at its October FOMC meeting (with 77% probability). This is consistent with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's calculus of the probability of a US recession one year from now, which has surged to 37.9% from just 14.5% ...

Chief economist update: US yield curve pictorial

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 28 AUG 2019
... over the past few months. Gentle readers would know that I subscribe to the yield curve that studies by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and New York prove to be the best predictor of a looming US recession - the spread between the 10-year US bond ...

Chief economist update: US recession a sure thing

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 19 AUG 2019
... yield on 10-year US Treasuries and that of the three-month bill - considered by studies conducted by both the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and New York, to be the best predictor of a looming US recession - remains negative. It had been consistently ...

Chief economist update: Greater than the Great Recession of 2008

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 15 AUG 2019
... Louis Fed president James Bullard podcast in his interview with Karen Mracek - media relations coordinator at Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - overnight (on August 14). Perhaps I'm turning into a Dr. Doom but, if the current global economic dynamics ...

Chief economist update: Fed plans for Trump contingency

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 20 JUN 2019
... participants projecting two rate reductions and one official calling for a single rate reduction this year. Heck, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard even voted for an outright 25 bps rate reduction at June meeting. Not surprisingly, investors ...

Chief economist update: Glass half-full or US recession on the way?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 29 MAY 2019
... to 44.6% from 38.1%. The financial markets are in good company. In an interview this month, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank emeritus economist Leonard Nakamura, was quoted saying: "People think we're just a half percent or a few tenths from a 2% ...

Bonds reward equity investors seeking refuge

KARREN VERGARA  |  MONDAY, 17 DEC 2018
... curve widely-referenced predictor of future recessions? The yield-curve slope, according to a paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, summarises different variables that determine the conditions and evolution of the economy into one indicator. ...

Chief economist update: Famous last words

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 28 AUG 2018
... Crisis. Maybe, this time is different. Then again maybe not. The "Economic Letter" published last night by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) is reason to be concerned: "The ability of the Treasury yield curve to predict future recessions ...