Aussie investors entering 'regime shift': VanEck

The next leg of the Australian share market rally is unlikely to be driven by the major banks, according to VanEck, which warned investors may be entering a "regime shift" following this week's sharp sell-off of Commonwealth Bank.

In its 2026 Australian Equities Outlook, the global asset manager said the $30 billion wipeout in CBA's market value highlighted the growing risks of concentration within the S&P/ASX 200 and signalled a broader market rotation already underway.

VanEck head of investments Russel Chesler said the conditions that underpinned years of bank outperformance, including falling interest rates, low inflation and uninterrupted housing credit growth had reversed simultaneously.

"We could be seeing the start of a regime shift," Chesler said.

"Australian investors may need to look beyond the big banks to capture the next phase of opportunity on the ASX," said Chesler.

VanEck found the outlook for the Australian market is becoming increasingly dispersed, with performance diverging sharply between sectors and individual companies.

While the materials sector has rallied more than 50% over the past year on the back of strong copper prices and demand for critical minerals, technology stocks have struggled amid valuation pressure and concerns around AI disruption.

VanEck said mid-cap companies have also outperformed larger peers on an earnings growth basis, despite continuing to trade at discounts to the ASX 50.

The firm identified materials, select industries and mid-cap stocks as offering the strongest risk adjusted opportunities heading into the second half of 2026.

Companies including Aurizon Holdings, Transurban and Telstra were highlighted for their inflation linked revenue streams and defensive market positions.

VanEck also warned investors against relying too heavily on passive exposure to the benchmark index, noting CBA alone represents roughly 10% of the ASX 200.

"When a single stock can move the benchmark by 0.5% on a quarterly update, you are no longer running a diversified portfolio," Chesler said.

Despite geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation pressures, VanEck said Australian equities remain relatively attractive compared to global peers including the US and Japan, particularly if earning growth broadens beyond the banking sector.