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Showing 11 - 20 of 38 results for "CME"

Chief economist update: Fed cut and Trump's war

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 5 AUG 2019
... rekindle investment. The Trump administration's trade policy, not the cost of capital, is holding businesses back..." The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of a Fed rate cut (to 1.75%-2.0%) at its September meeting at 98.5%.

Chief economist update: BOE flips tightening bias to easing

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 8 JUL 2019
... from the 72,000 added in the previous month - failed to remove or even reduce the odds for a Fed rate cut this month. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability that the US central bank will cut interest rates by 25 bps to 2%-2.25% at the conclusion ...

Chief economist update: Fed plans for Trump contingency

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 20 JUN 2019
... money where their expectations are - benchmark US equity indices closed higher and the US dollar dipped. More directly, the CME FedWatch Tool - based on 30-day Fed Fund futures pricing data - shows the probability of 25 bps rate cut in July has increased ...

Chief economist update: Cash is King

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 19 JUN 2019
... Reserve to serve Christmas in July with a 25 basis point reduction in the fed funds rate from 2.25%-2.5% to 2%-2.25%. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at current levels after its June meeting at 77.5%. ...

Chief economist update: US recession in the offing

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 3 JUN 2019
... - have gone more negative and by longer compared with its inversion in March this year. So much so that, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of Fed rate reductions by December this year have increased while the odds of the Fed maintaining ...

Chief economist update: Glass half-full or US recession on the way?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 29 MAY 2019
... demanding less(er) compensation for the prospect of inflation eroding the value of their Treasury holdings. So much so that the CME FedWatch Tool now puts the odds that the Fed will remain on hold down to 45.5% (from 51.6% a month ago) at its September ...

Chief economist update: A tariff for a tariff

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 14 MAY 2019
... wouldn't be enough given recent developments in the Sino-US trade stoush and the financial markets' reaction to it. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability that the fed funds rate would remain at 2.25%-2.50% at the Fed's December 2019 ...

Chief economist update: Policy of patience

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 2 MAY 2019
... aren't too convince. This hasn't stopped silent whispers the Fed would cut interest rates before 2019 is over. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability the Fed funds rate would remain at 2.25%-2.5% by December FOMC meeting at 47.8% and a 38.4% ...

Chief economist update: The Fed pause that refreshes

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 24 APR 2019
... The Fed now has the excuse it needs to justify a resumption of its normalisation of monetary policy. Just as I expected, the CME FedWatch Tool now shows that the probability of a Fed rate hike in June this year to 2.5%-2.75% has increased from nil a ...

Chief economist update: A question of when?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 28 MAR 2019
... yield differential between the tenners and the 3-month bill rate. We're still not there but we're getting close. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the odds of a Fed rate cut have increased - at its June meeting to 27.6% currently from 8.2% a month ...