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Showing 21 - 30 of 38 results for "CME"

Chief economist update: Fed on ice

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 21 MAR 2019
... out financial market psychology that "something must be wrong" to prompt the Fed to change its stance. More than this, the CME FedWatch Tool now (that is, after the Fed's March 2019 decision) shows the probability of the fed funds rate being cut ...

Chief economist update: Where sentiment goes, there too is spending

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 18 FEB 2019
... shutdown as well as a more fundamental shift in consumer expectations due to the Fed's pause in raising interest rates." The CME FedWatch Tool supports these expectations. According to the CME Group's website, the probability of the fed funds ...

Chief economist update: The Fed pause that refreshes

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 31 JAN 2019
... a month ago - itself, a downshift from earlier projections for three rate rises. Now, all bets are off (so to speak). The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of the Fed remaining on hold until the end of this year - fed funds rate at 2.25%-2.5% - ...

Fed's pause becomes the ECB's problem

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 11 JAN 2019
... us mulling over with regards to the conduct of its monetary policy over the course of 2019. How patient and flexible? The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of the fed funds rate remaining at the current 2.25%-2.50% level by 11 December 2019 meeting ...

Chief economist update: The clown in the White House

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 18 DEC 2018
... interest rate hike. Take the Victory!" Nah, the Fed's not even considering it, it's a done deal! Based on the latest CME FedWatch Tool, it's in the bag with the probability of the fed funds rate (currently at 2%-2.25%) rising by 25 bps to ...

And so this is Christmas, another year (almost) over

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 10 DEC 2018
... an iota of a difference that the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by another 25 basis points to 2.5% come 19 December. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of this happening at 69.8% - still strong odds but down from 72.3% before the release of ...

Chief economist update: The money is one Fed rate hike next year

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 19 NOV 2018
... the Fed does so before Christmas, it's the changes in the probability of Fed rate hikes next year that has changed. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of the fed funds rate at 2.75% by the Fed's last meeting in 2019 the highest ...

Chief economist update: Americans who want work will find it

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 5 NOV 2018
... Financial markets expect the US Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting this week (7-8 November) to be a ho-hum event. In fact, the CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of the Fed keeping the fed funds rate at 2-2.25% at 92.8% - almost a sure "no change" ...

Chief economist update: Fed will go hiking in June

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 24 MAY 2018
... business expectations for the year ahead held close to the 35-month peak seen in April." But what puzzles the mind is why the CME FedWatch Tool - the one which tracks the probability of fed rate hikes based on fed fund futures contract prices (or where ...

Chief economist update: Plotting the dots

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 19 MAR 2018
... almost as good as gold that it will announce another gentle 25 basis points hike, taking the fed funds rate to 1.5%-1.75% - CME FedWatch Tool has the probability of a rate hike at 94.4% - when the US central bank concludes its two-day FOMC meeting on ...