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Showing 41 - 50 of 108 results for "US inflation"

Higher and higher

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 4 SEP 2017
... high - giving credence to the issue regarding the BLS' seasonal adjustment problems with the August payrolls. With US inflation expectations again rising - the yield differential between the nominal 10 year Treasuries and TIPS has risen to 1.78% from ...

Is the Fed the victim of its own success?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 17 JUL 2017
... because of wages' lagged response. It could also be because the NAIRU for the US is now lower. But whatever it is US inflation remains low and softening, and the easing trend in US retail sales growth offers no support. US retail sales fell by a lower ...

Good oil, bad oil

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 23 JUN 2017
... 4.0% (when oil prices were trading at around US$110/barrel). The subsequent drop in oil prices to below US$50 sent US inflation down to a low of negative 0.2% in 2015 and global inflation down to an average of around 2.7% in the same year. Last year's ...

A rate rise on the ides of March?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 16 FEB 2017
... 36.1 in Jan) and selling prices (19.4 from 17.6). This is the same indication given by the much broader measure of US inflation. Headline CPI inflation accelerated to 2.5% in the year to January, from 2.1% in the previous month. This is higher than expectations ...

Trump is heaven's gift to central banks

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 11 NOV 2016
... Janet was talking about "hysteris" and temporarily running a "high pressure economy", wasn't it? I haven't seen any US inflation forecast updates yet but the consensus is... it will rise. Sure the US budget deficit would increase because to increased ...

December maybe?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 5 SEP 2016
... manufacturing accounts for only a small portion of the US economy... but everything adds up. Add these to the gauge of US inflation reported earlier and we have a case for a US economy that is not in any way at risk of overheating. The PCE price index ...

Returning Fed hike expectations could be flattened by yield curve

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 11 JUL 2016
... rising significantly to US$41.1 billion in May from US$37.4 billion in April - as well as putting downward pressure on US inflation. The longer end of the US bond market appears to be betting on this - with yields on 10-year US Treasuries dropping to ...

May sell may go away

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 2 MAY 2016
... 0.7% print and the weakest growth rate since Q1 2014 -- from 1.4% in the final quarter of last year. Not only this, US inflation is also moving away from the Fed's 2.0% target. The core PCE price index - the Fed's favoured inflation measure - eased to ...

Fed's plan slips on oil

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 21 JAN 2016
By itself the latest update on US inflation shouldn't impede the Fed's path towards policy normalisation. The December numbers are neither here nor there - i.e., it justifies whatever the market's pre-conceived view - four 25 bps hike this year as indicated ...

Lift-off off

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 16 OCT 2015
... emerging market economies that could develop in a way that could come back to the hurt the economy and hold down US inflation." Absent the slowing growth in 'the others' - particularly China and the emerging economies - the Fed would have lifted off ...