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Economics

One Direction and the BOE

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 20 MAR 2017
Were it not for the uncertainty that is Brexit, the BOE would have been on a path towards policy normalisation even before the Fed.

More fires than hires

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 17 MAR 2017
While markets don't expect the RBA to alter interest rate settings this year (but pricing in two rate hikes next year, according to WBC), the growing labour marketslack, along with A$ strength and still below target inflation put pressure on the Australian ...

One small rise in rates, one giant step towards normalisation

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 16 MAR 2017
Policy normalisation here we come ? but gently, gently.

Good for now worrying for later

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 15 MAR 2017
"Business conditions are still at quite lofty levels, consistent with our expectation for the economy to enjoy solid rates of growth in the near-term. However, it is the longer-term growth picture that we are more concerned about..."

Doubting the benefit

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 14 MAR 2017
While the world is giving Trump's pro-growth agenda - all still hanging up in the air at this point - the benefit of the doubt, the world continues to doubt the benefit of the effectiveness of the Politburo's determination towards "economic and social ...

No other way but up

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 13 MAR 2017
A 25 basis point hike sounds like old news now. Of more pertinence is how many more. The strong jobs report and accelerating inflation have pushed expectations up to four interest rate rises this year, one more than the Fed's forward guidance of three.

Traded goods inflation

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 10 MAR 2017
Quickening US import and export price inflation indicates that, barring a surprisingly weak US non-farm payrolls report (released later tonight), the fed funds rate would be at 0.75%-1.0% in about five days' time (15th of March).

Chinese inflation slows and quickens

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 10 MAR 2017
Headline inflation increased by a mere 0.8% in the year to February, slowing from 2.5% in January (and above 2.0% in October, November and December 2016).

Low-flation at the core

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 10 MAR 2017
"Underlying inflation pressures remained subdued."

Year of the Rooster deficit

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 9 MAR 2017
Historical data shows that China's trade balance either slows sharply or goes into deficit around the months of the Lunar New Year, so it's really nothing to crow about.