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Economics

Low-flation to lower-flation?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 27 JUL 2017
Given the macroeconomic outlooks, the RBA should be cutting rates. Yet reducing interest rates would increase financial stability risks in the economy.

Inflation matters

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 26 JUL 2017
This is an environment where a premature interest rate hike would be a bigger mistake than one that turns out to be slightly late.

Flashes: activity expansion and moderating inflation

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 25 JUL 2017
While there's a few ups and downs, Markit Economics' fresh batch of flash PMI estimates hasn't altered from the prevailing dynamics in the world's biggest economies of continued expansion in manufacturing and service sector activity and low or easing ...

Not showing: inflation

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 24 JUL 2017
Not only would an appreciating exchange rate "counteract the benefit to the Australian economy of faster global growth," it would also put downward pressure on inflation.

Good jobs, sluggish pay

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 21 JUL 2017
The correlation between the unemployment rate and the NAIRU - as estimated by the OECD - indicates wages should have been growing after the unemployment gap vanished in June last year.

The bull and bear market in iron ore

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 20 JUL 2017
Iron ore continues the uptrend that started in mid-June, reaching US$70.24 a tonne overnight.

Jump goes the Aussie

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 19 JUL 2017
The Australian dollar's recent sharp appreciation would, in itself, slow the domestic economy's growth and inflation momentum - the reverse of what the recent US dollar depreciation would do for the US.

The problem with currency extrapolation

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 18 JUL 2017
A currency's appreciation or depreciation sets in train certain dynamics that would return fundamentals to equilibrium.

Is the Fed the victim of its own success?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  MONDAY, 17 JUL 2017
The latest update on US consumer prices showed headline inflation decelerated to 1.6% in the year to June from 1.9% in May - the lowest since October 2016.

The Trump risk on global trade

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 14 JUL 2017
If it's any indication, China's latest international trade accounts underline the current missive of strengthening global growth and with it, global trade.