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Showing 41 - 50 of 152 results for "Yield Curve"

Chief economist update: Bonds do the limbo rock

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 9 AUG 2019
... the current global slowdown would morph into a recession. This is underscored by the deepening inversion in the US yield curve, presaging a US recession in 12-18 months' time. The yield differential between the US 10-year Treasury bond had been negative ...

Chief economist update: The turn in Australia's cycle from vicious to virtuous

BENJAMIN ONG  |  FRIDAY, 5 JUL 2019
"Such a feelin's comin' over me There is wonder in most everything I see..." - Karen Carpenter Not long now - just less than a percentage away (0.8% to be exact) - and the All Ordinaries index would top the all-time high of 6,853.57 points it ...

Chief economist update: Cash is King

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 19 JUN 2019
... monetary policy based on our domestic conditions and outlook, not on global circumstances. But as the inverted US yield curve forewarns, America would be in recession 12-18 months from today. This outlook explains why despite low to very low cash rates ...

Chief economist update: Expect more of the same from the BOJ

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 18 JUN 2019
... similar expectations for the Bank of Japan (BOJ). With the BOJ's policy rate currently at negative 0.1% and its "yield curve control" measure keeping the yield on 10-year JGBs at "around zero percent", the Japanese central bank cannot lower rates ...

Chief economist update: Australian bull market here we come

BENJAMIN ONG  |  THURSDAY, 13 JUN 2019
... markets recent rally is that on a relative basis the domestic economy's outlook fares relatively better than the US (yield curve inversion predicts a coming recession); the low growth economies of the Eurozone and Japan and though it's at par ...

Chief economist update: BOE going the wrong way?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 11 JUN 2019
... this year have been mounting because the global slowdown is beginning to hit closer to home, with the inverted US yield curve predicting a looming recession. This has been underscored by the latest disappointing US employment report - up by 75,000 in ...

Chief economist update: The path of monetary policy according to Lowe

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 5 JUN 2019
... impact on already slowing global growth, and the rising likelihood of a US recession (as indicated by the inverted yield curve) make this a real possibility. Governor Philip Lowe's statement after the conclusion of the RBA's June 4 board meeting ...

Chief economist update: Glass half-full or US recession on the way?

BENJAMIN ONG  |  WEDNESDAY, 29 MAY 2019
... April from a small 0.1% lift in the previous month. The drop in 10-year Treasury bond yield has again prompted the US yield curve to invert. We all know, and backed-up by history, what this means... a looming US recession. The recession fears we had ...

Chief economist update: Devilish details

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 21 MAY 2019
... arrow and/or the BOJ will have to go beyond maintaining its "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control" policy.

Chief economist update: A tariff for a tariff

BENJAMIN ONG  |  TUESDAY, 14 MAY 2019
... global recession. The Fed's forward guidance of steady rates until the end of the year has turned the slope of the yield curve (yield on 10-year Treasuries less 3-month T-bills) positive after it inverted in late March - a precursor of a US recession. ...