Bear market end in sight: AMP CapitalBY MARK SMITH | FRIDAY, 23 NOV 2012 11:35AMThere are some pretty good signs that the secular bear market may be coming to an end, according to AMP Capital's Shane Oliver. |
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a fairly decent bull market had pushed the index to very bullish all time highs of 6600 !
That, by my reckoning from there, it is more like a 5 year bear market and the bear market which bottomed at 3145 in March 2009 may have more suffering ahead if "it is generally accepted that these periods last around 10-15 years".
The share market at around 4400 today at around the mid point between the high and low of the last 12 years points to further uncertainty for the market going ahead over the next 12 years.
Not a market to make rash predictions on the next 12 years.
To suggest this abstract statement "the longer it goes on the more chance there is of it reaching an end" is an indicator to buy equities is - to put it mildly - a tad shallow. The single reason the ASX is flat on a 12 year basis is due to the 13 trillion dollars (that's nine zeros) the major central banks of the world have printed, creating the illusion everything is fine by propping up the price of risk assets, especially equities. The 'E' side of the P/E equation is deteriorating with increasing central bank and government intervention crowding out the private sector, while the P side is being inflated by extra dollars in the system desperately seeking a return. Buy hard assets unless you think you can time the trade well enough to get out before this ponzi scheme of sorts blows up. Good luck.
Compared to the Great Depression? Do most people realise that the Dow Jones Industrial Average did not recover until 1955 (26 years duration)? Doesn't the fact that the Federal Reserve will keep their zero interest rate policy going at least until mid 2015,give us time to pause? Doesn't it worry Shane Oliver that the Fed has no exit strategy except to increase interest rates and remove a huge amount of money from the US economy?