Netwealth's revenue from its cash transaction accounts could fall in the next year as the risk of ANZ Bank renegotiating the rate rises, according to Macquarie.

Netwealth had $38.8 billion in total funds under advice at December end. Of this, about 7.2% or $2.8 billion is in cash transaction accounts, on which the firm earns about 95bps from ANZ Bank.

The platform provider has previously highlighted that it or the bank may terminate the agreement with 12 months' notice.

Macquarie analyst Brendan Carrig yesterday said the risk of ANZ wanting to renegotiate the rate is now rising, in what could impact Netwealth's earnings.

"With bank profits recently under pressure and limited competition for deposits, the risk of ANZ renegotiating the cash rate +95bps they paid NWL is rising. We note that 12 months' notice is required to be given before any change is made. We estimate a 50bps reduction in the rate would reduce earnings by ~$10m and have a ~15% impact on our valuation [of $16.42 per share]," Macquarie analyst Brendan Carrig said in a February 18 note.

Netwealth's cash transaction accounts' combined balance has ticked down over the last year, as investors became more comfortable in moving back into the markets. At September end, they represented over 9% of Netwealth's total FUA.

The platform provider yesterday reported strong growth in revenue and NPAT. Its inflows were strong as well and well-diversified, while operational expenses relating to COVID-19 were kept to minimal.

However, Carrig flagged the increased trading activity revenue which could normalise, and FUA administration is not expected to increase significantly in the second half of FY21 as new price is now fully implemented.