Economics
Brexit is history: Chief Economists Forum

Brexit is history and the world can go on without an EU-Britain trade agreement, an economic expert told this morning's Financial Standard Chief Economists Forum.

AXA Investment Managers' head of Framlington Equities Asia, Mark Tinker, told delegates at the forum in Sydney that Britain and the European Union don't need a trade deal to trade.

According to Tinker, in the last two years Britain has been preoccupied by the fact it's leaving the EU, while the union itself has moved forward.

"Remember, both [British] parties actually stood for the election in 2017 on the basis that we were going to leave the single market and the customs union," Tinker said.

"So part of the Government is pretending that it didn't actually say that.

"And then there are other parts that really want it to be what I refer to as season 10 of Dallas. If you remember season 10 that was the one where season nine actually didn't happen, Bobby never died and it was all a dream by Pam."

Continuing with the Dallas metaphor, Tinker said some British MP's believed Armageddon would ensue if Britain left the EU without a trade agreement. But he doesn't agree.

"The issue is will we get through to March 29 without an agreement? Now everybody who is in the Dallas season 10 group would call this crashing out," he said.

"And the market had previously been buying into this idea that if the UK leaves without a deal, it's Armageddon. It's not. It won't be. And that's not a political view it's actually an economic view."

Explaining his thinking, Tinker said the Mayor of Calais - the main port of entry for British exports heading to Europe - was unlikely to thwart the arrival of British exports simply if an agreement wasn't reached.

Tinker added the market was "waking up to the fact" that Britain and the EU still pursue a trade agreement in the future.

As for his own strategy? Tinker said there was nothing he could do until March 29, the day currently slated for Britain's official exit.

However he said he is interested in the strategy the firm will take after that date, and is deliberating whether to hedge or not.

"I can't do anything except stay out until we get through at the end of March, because I've got no information that I can actually hedge my portfolios on, and I think many global investors are the same," he said.

Read more: BrexitChief Economists ForumArmageddonFinancial StandardAXA Investment ManagersEuropean UnionFramlington EquitiesMark Tinker
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