Wen has spoken
Tuesday, 16 March 2010 9:25am
Raise your hand anyone who still thinks that China will revalue the yuan. That's what I thought.
‘Twas only last week that financial markets were all a-buzz that Beijing will "soon" - very soon - unhitch the renminbi's peg to the US dollar and make it more expensive vis-à-vis the US currency.
Hate to say I told you so but…"I told you so!" At the conclusion of China's annual legislative session, Premier Wen Jiabao put an end to all these rumours, speculation, and what he terms as "pressure".
"First of all, I do not think the renminbi is undervalued," and "We are opposed to countries pointing fingers at each other or taking strong measures to force other countries to appreciate their currencies. To do this is not beneficial to reform of the renminbi exchange-rate regime."
Back at you US. "I can understand that some countries want to increase their share of exports, what I don't understand is the practice of depreciating one's own currency and attempting to press other countries to appreciate their own currencies solely for the purpose of increasing one's own exports. This kind of practice I think is a kind of trade protectionism."
This was Premier Wen's response to US President Obama's target of doubling US exports over five years and at the same calling on Beijing to transition into a "market-oriented" exchange rate policy.
Premier Wen has spoken and in China "vox Wen is vox dei". How would the US respond? We'll soon see. America will decide next month whether or not to engage in name-calling and brand Beijing a "currency manipulator" under the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988.
"Sticks and stones may break my bones, but words will never hurt me." On the contrary, China has potential to do more damage to the US. China has a stronger economy than the US and is the largest holder of American foreign debt. As at the end of January, China holds 24 per cent of total foreign treasury securities issued by the US government worth US$3.7 trillion. Add Hong Kong's holdings to this and this rises to 28 per cent. Never in my life have I seen a borrower threaten its creditor! Well…except for AIG perhaps.
And speaking of debts, Moody's Investors Service warned that the US and the UK are headed closer towards losing their AAA-credit ratings. These countries' "distance to downgrade has in all cases substantially diminished."
Moody's explanations are all over Bloomberg and other financial news services. But this is all you get from me. Why?
This is futile exercise. Downgrade the US? And the UK? Two countries that borrow in their own currency! Two countries that could effectively print money ad infinitum!
Give me a break!
Moody's latest warning should be treated with the same disdain and suspicion it deserves when it was handing out investment grade ratings to subprime mortgage backed CDOs and other structured products.
Enough said.
Benjamin Ong
This story was found at: http://www.financialstandard.com.au/news/view/28292
Printed: Thursday, 9 September 2010 7:24pm