There's no denying that growth in most major economies stepped up in the third quarter of this year but if current indications are on the ball, the fourth quarter will be better.
Year-on-year GDP growth rates in the US, the Eurozone, Japan, the UK and India all accelerated in the September quarter from the previous one. China's GDP remained unchanged at 6.9% over the same period but his is more by design and above the targeted 6.5% growth rate. So will Australia's economic growth if consensus expectations for acceleration to 3% from 1.8% in the June quarter prove accurate. We'll find out this Wednesday when the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the September quarter figures.
Sure these numbers tell the story of synchronised accelerating growth of three months ago but present indications are that these persists and even stronger.
"Global economic growth ticks higher at start of final quarter." This was the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI's report lead header when it reported the headline index rose to a reading of 54 in October from 53.9 in September. This marked the 61st month that the index signalled expansion as both the manufacturing and services sectors continued to improve.
This has continued into November and is much stronger. According to the report released on the 1 December: "Global manufacturing growth accelerates to 80-month high."
"November saw the upturn in the global manufacturing sector strengthen, with rates of expansion in output, new orders and employment all hitting multi-year highs. Price pressures remained elevated, however, with input costs and output charges rising at accelerated and above longrun average rates.
The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI(TM) - a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM - posted 54 in November, up from 53.5 in October and its highest reading since March 2011. The headline PMI has signalled expansion for 21 consecutive months.
Business conditions improved across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors. The strongest expansion was signalled at intermediate goods producers and the slowest in the consumer goods category."
November data for the services PMI is not yet available but even if it remains unchanged at 54.1 in November (up from 53.8 in September), the composite PMI reading would remain at elevated levels.
This is the view of "16,000 purchasing executives from 32 of the world's top economies, including the US, Japan, Germany, France and China which together account for over 85% of global GDP" as the definition of the JP Morgan Global Composite PMI states.